Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.005241 0.005534 0.005837 0.006174 0.006540 0.006925 0.007362
2025-12-14 0.004736 0.005162 0.005623 0.006161 0.006775 0.007459 0.008282
2025-12-21 0.004303 0.004783 0.005317 0.005961 0.006722 0.007600 0.008701
2025-12-28 0.004091 0.004623 0.005230 0.005980 0.006893 0.007982 0.009400
2026-01-04 0.003948 0.004526 0.005198 0.006050 0.007115 0.008423 0.010186
2026-01-11 0.003770 0.004372 0.005085 0.006005 0.007182 0.008664 0.010723
2026-01-18 0.003632 0.004255 0.005006 0.005993 0.007281 0.008944 0.011320
2026-01-25 0.003490 0.004127 0.004904 0.005941 0.007320 0.009139 0.011808
2026-02-01 0.003439 0.004107 0.004934 0.006058 0.007584 0.009646 0.012766
2026-02-08 0.003332 0.004011 0.004861 0.006033 0.007651 0.009882 0.013344
2026-02-15 0.003243 0.003933 0.004807 0.006028 0.007741 0.010152 0.013988
2026-02-22 0.003128 0.003816 0.004697 0.005940 0.007709 0.010240 0.014354
2026-03-01 0.003023 0.003710 0.004598 0.005865 0.007692 0.010351 0.014770
2026-03-08 0.002948 0.003642 0.004547 0.005854 0.007768 0.010603 0.015433
2026-03-15 0.002815 0.003491 0.004378 0.005669 0.007575 0.010434 0.015378
2026-03-22 0.002762 0.003446 0.004353 0.005686 0.007685 0.010736 0.016146
2026-03-29 0.002729 0.003427 0.004361 0.005751 0.007868 0.011165 0.017171
2026-04-05 0.002662 0.003359 0.004298 0.005709 0.007884 0.011322 0.017720
2026-04-12 0.002608 0.003308 0.004257 0.005698 0.007945 0.011556 0.018430
2026-04-19 0.002546 0.003242 0.004194 0.005649 0.007945 0.011685 0.018948
2026-04-26 0.002535 0.003249 0.004234 0.005758 0.008201 0.012265 0.020401
2026-05-03 0.002485 0.003198 0.004189 0.005735 0.008240 0.012469 0.021122
2026-05-10 0.002443 0.003158 0.004157 0.005730 0.008308 0.012728 0.021979